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Matthew Stafford’s brilliant 2025 campaign secured him his first MVP award and pushed the Los Angeles Rams back into the Super Bowl conversation, but a new study from Pro Football Focus suggests the veteran quarterback may have been riding the NFL’s biggest wave of turnover luck.
According toPFF’s “net luck” model, Stafford posted the largest positive interception variance in football at +6.8 — a staggering 2.3 points ahead of the next closest quarterback, Titans’ Cam Ward.
Stafford generated 21 turnover-worthy throws during the season, but only eight were intercepted, while defenders dropped nine additional would-be picks. Under league-average interception outcomes, Stafford’s total likely would have landed closer to 16 interceptions instead of nine.
PFF noted Stafford also topped the league in turnover luck during 2024, which ranked as the luckiest quarterback season in the study’s entire 10-year database. History suggests that kind of fortune rarely lasts. PFF’s data found that roughly 88% of interception luck regresses toward the league average the following season.
That regression could become a major storyline for a Rams team facing one of the NFL’s toughest schedules in 2026. Sharp Football Analytics projects Los Angeles with the league’sfifth-hardest slate, including matchups against the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, Packers, Chargers, and two meetings each against their NFC West divisional rivals Seahawks and 49ers.
What all of these teams have in common are all among the teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, according to ESPN.
The Rams are still viewed as legitimate contenders, carrying the top Super Bowl odds between +700 and +800. But the schedule leaves little room for offensive slippage.
The numbers behind Stafford’s turnovers paint a stark picture. Over the last two seasons, Los Angeles went 16-5 when Stafford avoided interceptions entirely, averaging 27.0 points per game while allowing just 20.3.
With one interception, the Rams’ win rate dropped from 76.2% to 54.5%, and their scoring dipped nearly a field goal to 24.3 points per game.
Source: California Post – Breaking California News, Photos & Videos
