In a blistering critique published by National Review, editor John Downey accuses Virginia Democrats of flouting state law to ram through what he calls the most extreme gerrymander in the nation, targeting Republican congressional districts with surgical precision. The proposed map, advanced by the Democrat-controlled General Assembly, redraws boundaries in ways that Downey argues violate Virginia's constitutional mandates for compact districts and respect for communities of interest, potentially handing Democrats an ironclad hold on the state's congressional delegation.
Downey's analysis zeroes in on the specifics: the new lines would dismantle the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, by splitting the Hampton Roads military community across multiple districts and packing GOP voters into unwieldy shapes. He cites data from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, which rates the Democratic plan as more partisan than even the most aggressive maps in New York or Maryland—states notorious for their own redistricting abuses. Virginia's constitution, amended by voters in 2020 to curb such manipulations following GOP excesses in 2011 and 2021, explicitly requires districts to be "compact and contiguous" while minimizing splits of political subdivisions, criteria Downey claims the Democrats' map obliterates.
The controversy stems from a tangled redistricting saga. After voters rejected an independent commission in 2020, courts intervened when Democrats challenged the GOP-drawn 2021 maps. The Democrat-majority Virginia Supreme Court rejected a bipartisan compromise last December, greenlighting the legislature to draw new lines. Republicans, now in the minority after flipping the governorship but losing ground in the House of Delegates, cried foul as Democrats unveiled their proposal in early 2024, predicting it would flip the 2nd and 7th Districts while shoring up blue strongholds.
Republican leaders, including House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, have vowed legal challenges, arguing the map not only defies state law but mocks the electorate's reform efforts. Democrats counter that their plan adheres to court guidelines and corrects prior Republican overreach, with Gov. Glenn Youngkin promising to veto it—though legislative Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in both chambers. Political analysts note the stakes: Virginia's 11 seats could tip the razor-thin U.S. House balance, where Republicans cling to a slim majority.
Beyond the partisan trench warfare, Downey's piece frames the Virginia fight as a harbinger of national trends, where one-party control enables mapmakers to entrench power indefinitely. With the U.S. Supreme Court unlikely to intervene absent racial gerrymandering claims, and independent commissions faltering nationwide, Virginia's saga underscores the fragility of redistricting reforms. As lawsuits loom and deadlines approach for the 2024 primaries, the Old Dominion's battle lines offer a stark preview of democracy's drawing-board dilemmas.
