Should countries be forced to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions? The United Nations certainly thinks so, and according to a May 22, 2026, vote at the UN General Assembly, 141 member countries are also on board with even stricter greenhouse gas regulations. Yet this ignores the recent upheaval of the worst-case scenario climate forecast that has been plaguing us for decades. If even the UN admits that there is no dire climate change coming our way, why then are nations around the world still pushing for overreaching climate policies?
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Here’s the big news that just unfolded:
The international committee responsible for forecasting humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions releases what are called “plausible”future scenarios. These are then used by researchers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to forecast future climate states. The greenhouse gas emissions scenario that was responsible for thousands of research papers and even more frightening media headlines is referred to as Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Along with other extreme scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0), this was intended to be a high-emission scenario, but in fact, it has been used as abaselinein climate change research and policy-making worldwide.
This meansSSP58.5 = a world narrative (SSP5) + the same forcing target as RCP8.5.
Asexplainedby Roger Pielke Jr., senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the previous high scenario of SSP5-8.5 had carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reaching 128 Gigatonnes (Gt) per year in 2100. But now, the new high scenario is only at 71 Gt of CO2in 2100. RCP8.5 required burning coal at animpossible rate. The following graph illustrates the projected coal use up until 2100 under different scenarios, from the paperWhy do climate change scenarios return to coal?by Ritchie and Dowlatabadi (2017).
Source: SGT Report
