US President Donald Trump has repeatedly declared that the war with Iran is nearing an end, even as military strikes, threats and stalled negotiations continued. Over recent months, Trump has alternated between promising diplomacy, threatening military escalation and claiming victory in the conflict — sometimes within days or even hours of one another.
In March, he wrote on social media: "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Days later, he claimed Iran was "totally defeated and wants a deal".
On 23 March, Trump announced a five-day pause on planned attacks against Iranian power and energy infrastructure. The move triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling more than 10% as investors interpreted the decision as a possible de-escalation.
That same day, Trump told reporters there had been "very, very strong talks" with Tehran and suggested there was a "real possibility" of an agreement. Iranian officials publicly rejected those claims. The speaker of Iran's parliament accused Washington of spreading "fake news" to influence oil and financial markets.
The shifting stance of US President Donald Trump over the Iran war
Despite the rhetoric, tensions escalated again within days. On 30 March, Trump warned on social media that Iran's energy infrastructure could be targeted unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened immediately.
Financial markets reacted sharply. The S&P 500 recorded its worst day of the year before partially recovering after Trump later suggested US forces would be leaving the region "very soon".
In a televised address on April 1, Trump said diplomacy remained his preferred option and declared that US military objectives would be completed "very shortly". But the following days brought further contradictory messages. On 4 April, he warned that "all Hell will reign down" within 48 hours, before later claiming Iran had made "a significant proposal". On April 7, he threatened that "a whole civilization will die tonight", only to later announce a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan.
Although markets initially welcomed the truce, the ceasefire quickly came under strain. Tehran accused Israel of violating the agreement through continued fighting involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed despite repeated promises to reopen it.
Before the conflict began, roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments passed through the strait. Since the outbreak of fighting, shipping traffic has dropped sharply.
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