Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
It seems like we are on the cusp of an agreement with Iran. We will help analyze the market implications in a SITREP if and when the details are released.
In the meantime, the one question that seems to puzzle everyone, iswhat is the state of the job market?
Yes, there are all sorts ofquestions around AI,the AI and data center spend,affordability, and inflation, but the state of the job market seems to be the most puzzling of late.
Thejuxtapositionof daily discussions about no hiring, and fears ofAI job losses,versus somestellar headline data.
Record low consumer sentimentversus ongoingspending remaining strong.
Mixed (at worst) evidence of delinquencies. There is little (that I could find) evidence of a broad-based increase in delinquencies. If you squint hard, you can seeevidence of pressure on the lower income part of the population, but as of now, that’s about it.
The last two headline numbers (from the Establishment Survey), as of now (before revisions), were 185k and 115k.Big numbers, anobvious A+ in terms of grading.
While the headline is important, for most of the country, within days of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, we started to talk less about the headline jobs and more about the unemployment rate. So that seems like a good starting point for exploring the jobs data.
We used the “official” titles from Bloomberg for the Unemployment rate (blue) and the Underemployment rate (black).
Source: ZeroHedge News
