With war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents' minds (along with record high stock prices), it is perhaps not entirely surprising that The Conference Board's ConsumerConfidence dipped in May (but was better than expected).
The headline index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April.
ThePresent Situation Index- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -retreatedby 3.2 points to 121.2.
TheExpectations Index- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -roseby 1.0 points to 74.4 - thehighest since Dec 2025.
“Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified,”said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.
“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers’ expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.”
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downwardbut remained elevated.
The overall trend of the labor market remains weaker...
Among age groups,confidence ticked up for consumers aged 35-54, but trended downward for older and younger consumers,both month-over-month and on a six-month moving average basis.
By income,confidence among higher income groups trended upwardon a six-month moving average basis.
Source: ZeroHedge News
