Goldman analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for March (full note here).
In the month of April, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.
Spot pricing steadies, supported by Sprott activity. Spot U₃O₈ prices rebounded through mid April following late March softness, rising from the low $80s to the mid and high $80s, briefly touching ~$87/lb around WNFC Monaco. Momentum faded toward late April and early May, with prices drifting modestly lower into the mid $80s.
Term pricing stable. Term uranium pricing remained firm through April and into early May, holding around ~$90/lb. Market engagement stayed active, supported by ongoing utility discussions around mid and long term coverage. Floors largely holding in the mid $70s and ceilings extending into the low $130s for long dated deliveries.
Updating supply-demand model: We update our uranium supply/demand model to include updated forecasts for SMR deployments. We are conservatively anticipating SMR deployments reach nearly 2GW in 2030, and grow at 2GW-3GW per year through 2045, representing cumulative deployments of ~46GW in 2045. This represents a 6% uplift to our 2045 nuclear power generation forecast. Based on our fuel burn assumptions, we estimate these deployments will create a uranium demand need of ~62mn lbs in 2045, or 17% upside to our 2045 forecast.
Revisions to power generation forecast. We have maintained our large reactor forecast, but now include estimates for global SMR deployments between 2026-2045. We believe these estimates are relatively conservative. As a result of our changes, we see an expanding deficit over the medium-term. Our forecast does not include nuclear uprates to existing facilities, which provides further upside.
More in the fullnote availableto pro subs.
Source: ZeroHedge News
