Prompt Brent/WTI crude nearby futures increased by 5/7% week-over-week to $105/101 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained very low and on limited signs of progress on a US-Iran deal.
Meanwhile, as global oil inventoriescollapse at a record paceyet slidingChinese demand and strategic releasesfrom Beijing keep crude prices relatively stable, Goldman writes that theUS gasoline market has become very tight, with inventories drawing at a rapid average pace of 0.7mb/d since April 1st to 5% below their historical seasonal median this week.
This has been driven by a combination of:
On the pricing side, wholesale gasoline prices in the US are approximately 15% ($21/bbl)higher than in Asia and Europe(Exhibit 1 above), and US retail prices are just $0.5/gal below their all-time high.
Goldman says that while it's not the bank's base case, the probability of US oil export restrictions likely rises with US retail gasoline prices.
Turning to oil, the IEA estimates in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) an April deficit of 5.3mb/d, suggestingthat the deficit may be less large than most had estimated last month, driven by:
Slightly lower IEA demand.Since the beginning of the crisis, the IEA has cumulatively (May - Feb OMR) downgraded its estimate of April demand by 3.1mb/d to 100.4mb/d (vs. a slightly smaller downgrade of 2.9mb/d in Goldman's balance).
The IEA reports thatSPR releases from IEA countries averaged 2.1mb/d in April (but picked up significantly in the second half of the month). This has been a significantly larger offset for crude than for refined products —of the 90mb of total government inventories released since March 11th, 82mb are crude oil, while only 8mb are refined products.
US production in 2026 Q1 also surprised to the upside, with the modest beats concentrated in oil production by E&Ps (+2.1%) and liquids production by majors (+1.3%).
More in the full Goldman oil tracker noteavailable to pro subs.
Source: ZeroHedge News
