Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The stagflation narrative dominating financial social media isn’t completely wrong. That’s what makes it so dangerous.After more than 30 years of managing client portfolios through actual inflationary cycles, not watching them on YouTube, I’ve learned that the most damaging investment advice isn’t built on outright lies. It’s built on partial truths, stretched past the point where the data still holds.
If you haven’t readCommodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis (Part 1), it is an important primer to today’s discussion.
The doomers have legitimate inputs. Supply chains are genuinely under pressure, and the dollar currently faces real structural headwinds. Central banks have been buying gold at a historic pace. Equity valuations in certain segments are stretched, and every one of those observations is defensible.However, the leap from those observations to“sell everything, go all-in on commodities, bonds are dead forever, the great reset is here,”is where the analysis ends and the storytelling begins.
I want to do two things here. First, I’ll score the stagflation narrative claim-by-claim. We will give credit where it’s earned and expose where the logic collapses. I’ll lay out what a sound investment framework actually looks like when the data, not the narrative, drives the decision. Moreover, why the boom-bust nature of commodity markets and the AI-driven capex cycle both fundamentally change where allocations belong.
Spend an hour on X, and you’ll encounter some version of the same script.
The Federal Reserve has destroyed the currency.
The 1970s are back, only worse.
Commodities are going to surge for the next decade.
Bonds are a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power.
Source: ZeroHedge News
