The Trump administration publicly framed Operation Epic Fury as a decisive military success against Iran. Senior American officials repeatedly claimedTehran’s military capabilityhad been shattered after weeks of coordinated US-Israeli strikes targeting missile infrastructure, military facilities and strategic assets across the country.
Behind closed doors, however, classified intelligence assessments reportedly present a far more complicated picture. According to a report by The New York Times, fresh intelligence findings suggest Iran remains militarily capable despite the scale of the bombardment campaign. The assessments indicate that Tehran has retained substantial portions of its missile stockpile, launch infrastructure and regional strike capability, even after sustained attacks designed to cripple its operational capacity.
President Donald Trump had maintained throughout the conflict that Iran was nearing military collapse. In an interview with CBS News on March 9, Trump claimed Iran’s missile capability had been reduced to “a scatter” and argued the country had “nothing left in a military sense”.
That position was reinforced by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who declared the conclusion of Operation Epic Fury by stating the campaign had “decimated” the Iranian military and rendered it “combat-ineffective for years to come”.
Less than a month after those public declarations, intelligence officials reportedly concluded that Iran had regained access to much of its military infrastructure. The classified findings cited in the report claim Tehran still retains nearly 70 per cent of its pre-war missile stockpile, including ballistic missiles capable of regional strikes and cruise missile systems designed for shorter-range operations.
The assessments further suggest that roughly 70 per cent of Iran’s mobile missile launchers remain operational across the country. That distinction matters strategically. Mobile launch systems are significantly harder to destroy because they can be dispersed, concealed and rapidly repositioned. Iran’s military doctrine has long relied on survivability through decentralised missile deployment and hardened underground infrastructure rather than fixed military concentrations vulnerable to airstrikes.
Despite the intelligence concerns, the White House has continued defending the administration’s public narrative. Responding to questions raised by The New York Times report, White House spokesperson Olivia Wales insisted the Iranian military had been “crushed” and accused critics of amplifying Tehran’s messaging. She reportedly described suggestions that Iran had recovered militarily as “virtual treason”.
Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez also criticised sections of the American media, accusing outlets of portraying Operation Epic Fury unfairly despite what he described as a “historic accomplishment”.
One of the most sensitive findings reportedly involves theStrait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transit daily. The United States Navy currently maintains more than 20 warships operating in and around the Strait as part of ongoing maritime enforcement operations linked to the regional conflict.
According to the intelligence assessments, Iran has reportedly regained access to 30 of its 33 missile sites positioned along the waterway. That has reportedly alarmed senior American officials because those missile systems could still threaten commercial shipping and naval assets if hostilities resume.
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