Global oil prices held steady near $68 per barrel on Monday, buoyed by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran even as OPEC+ weighs a potential supply increase from April. Brent crude futures dipped slightly to $67.72 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $62.86 per barrel, reflecting a cautious market stance ahead of critical negotiations.
Traders are closely monitoring talks scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva between Washington and Tehran, aimed at resolving the long-standing dispute over Iran's nuclear program. The prospect of these discussions has tempered aggressive buying, with both benchmarks having declined last week following U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that a deal could be reached within a month.
An Iranian diplomat revealed that Tehran is pushing for a nuclear agreement that delivers mutual economic benefits, including foreign investments in its energy and mining sectors as well as purchases of aircraft. Such concessions could ease sanctions and bolster Iran's economy, but progress remains uncertain amid entrenched positions on both sides.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore cautioned Reuters that expectations for a breakthrough are low. "With both sides expected to hold firm on their core red lines, expectations are low that a deal can be reached and this is likely to be the calm before the storm," Sycamore said, highlighting the fragile balance in the oil market.
Adding to the tension, military posturing has intensified in the region. The U.S. has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the area, signaling heightened readiness. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have issued stark warnings, stating they would retaliate against U.S. military bases if Iranian territory is attacked.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ deliberations on ramping up production from April are acting as a counterweight, capping any significant price gains despite the supply disruption fears. Investors remain on edge, balancing the risks of escalation with the prospect of increased output from the producer group.
