Poland is grappling with uncertainty over the future of American troops stationed on its soil, amid reports of high-level discussions and fears of potential U.S.-Russia negotiations that could reshape regional security. Publicly financed TVP World highlighted journalist Dorota Gawryluk's claim that President Karol Nawrocki considered proposing a quid pro quo to former President Donald Trump during the Davos forum, offering Poland's participation in a "Peace Board" in exchange for U.S. agreement on establishing a permanent military base in the country.
Gawryluk expressed uncertainty about whether Nawrocki ultimately made the proposal, noting that his rival, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, decided against Poland joining the Peace Board. Despite these developments, the report suggests underlying anxiety in Warsaw regarding the sustainability of the current U.S. military presence, which TVP World described as rotational but effectively permanent.
As of early 2026, approximately 10,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Poland, primarily on a rotational basis. This deployment could still be withdrawn in the future, even after Trump publicly considered sending additional forces there during his September meeting with Nawrocki in Washington, D.C.
The broader context fueling Polish concerns involves ongoing Russian-U.S. talks, with policymakers in Warsaw worried that the U.S. might agree to reduce its military footprint in the region—or even fully withdraw troops from Poland and neighboring areas—as part of a deal with Moscow. Such an arrangement could involve Russia removing Oreshniks and/or tactical nuclear weapons from Belarus.
This potential agreement might pave the way for a U.S.-Russian Non-Aggression Pact, which—given America's dominant role in NATO—could effectively extend to the alliance and reform Europe's security architecture without Poland's input. Historical sensitivities amplify these fears, as Poland worries that a Russian invasion could follow, only for the U.S. to abandon the country if it gains stakes in Russia's strategic resource sector through emerging bilateral deals.
Compounding these apprehensions is the U.S.'s evolving strategic priorities, with a primary focus on the Western Hemisphere and a secondary emphasis on containing China in Asia. While such a full withdrawal scenario remains unlikely, its mere possibility is influencing Polish policymaking as leaders navigate an unpredictable geopolitical landscape.
