Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Intel (INTC) shares have risen 90% over the past month and more than 200% since the start of the year. Its competitors, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron (MU), are posting similar gains. Many other semiconductor stocks, along with some computer hardware companies, are the market’s latest AI darlings. Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.
The narrative holds that the insatiable infrastructure buildout for AI, including data centers, GPUs/CPUs, networking equipment, and power grids, requires massive capital expenditure from the largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta). The suppliers of these products, including semiconductor and hardware producers, are the most direct beneficiaries.
AI will significantly improve the bottom line for many companies. But investors should be asking whether the stock prices have gotten too far ahead of fundamentals. The answer, in our opinion, is likely yes. As we wrotein Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already:
Here’s the part that should bother bulls the most. SOXX is trading at multiples that already reflect strong 2026 earnings. The current rally has likely already fully priced in 2026 earnings. From here, you are paying for 2027 and 2028 growth in a sector where the cycle has not been repealed. Semiconductors are still cyclical. Always have been. The day the AI capex cycle hiccups, even briefly, is the day this chart breaks.
To fully appreciate the recent astonishing performance, it’s worth looking beyond fundamentals and narratives to better understand how herding, momentum, and option delta and gamma can systematically drive prices higher and eventually lower.
Financial momentum is the tendency for assets that have been rising to continue rising and those that have been falling to continue falling. Often, during a strong momentum phase, the pace of buying or selling increases, resulting in parabolic price gains, as we are witnessing with Intel and its competitors.
When a stock trends higher, investors increasingly notice the bullish momentum and buy it, which pushes the price higher and attracts even more buyers. This type of herding behavior can create a self-reinforcing cycle- buying begets more buying.
When momentum is strong, the pressure on new investors to join the trade or on existing ones to add to their positions is enormous. As these investors focus on the incredible rewards they might receive, they often lose sight of the trade’s fundamental justification.The result is a crowded trade with sometimes breathtaking gains, but ultimately a sharp reversal that strips profits from most participants.
Retail and institutional momentum traders often use call options as a leveraged way to participate in price gains without buying the stock outright. Call options provide investors with limited downside risk and the potential for upside gains that can be multiples of the underlying stock’s price. Call buying can become a momentum accelerant, as we explain next.
Source: ZeroHedge News
