Mali is collapsing, and the consequences are Islamic extremism and economic fallout that threaten Europe. Since September 2025, the al-Qaeda affiliateJama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin(JNIM) has waged economic warfare against the Malian government, blockading Bamako’s fuel supply and strangling the state’s capacity to function. Russia’s Africa Corps, which replaced Wagner asMali’s security guarantorin mid-2025, has proven unable to break the siege.
Meanwhile, the United States, under President Biden, surrendered its primary intelligence platform in the region when Niger’s post-coup junta expelled American forces fromAir Base 201in 2024. The combination has left Europe’s southern flank exposed in ways NATO has formally acknowledged but is incapable of addressing.
JNIMannounced the blockadeon September 3, 2025, initially framing it as pressure to lift junta taxes on fuel imports, but later expanding it into a demand for Sharia law. Senegal and Ivory Coast together suppliedapproximately 95 percentof Mali’s fuel. JNIM severed those routes by attacking and burning trucks, kidnapping drivers, and destroying more than 300 tankers en route from Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Guinea.
Satellite imagery fromMay and Octobershowed Bamako with visibly reduced lighting. Schools closed, blackouts spread, and the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, and Germany all advised their citizens to leave immediately, while Washington and London also pulled non-essential diplomatic staff.
The blockade was a deliberate encirclement strategy,replicating tacticspreviously used in Burkina Faso. JNIM’s Maçina Liberation Front had already launched seven simultaneous attacks across western Mali on July 1, 2025, spanning hundreds of kilometers near the Senegalese and Mauritanian borders. The offensive marked a major geographic expansion, withnearly 20 percentof JNIM’s violence in Mali shifting west and south, while fatalities doubled to more than 450 deaths in territory where the group had previously been largely absent.
Fuel rationing reduced patrol tempo andquick-reaction capability, creating openings for JNIM operations near the capital.
On April 25, 2026, the terrorists launched a major offensive. Joint coordinated attacks by the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM struck Bourem, Bamako, Kati, Sévaré, Senou, and Mopti simultaneously, marking the largest attacks in the Mali War since the 2012 rebellion. Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed in asuicide vehiclebombing near Bamako, and Africa Corps subsequently abandoned Kidal, along with Aguelhok, Tessalit, Tessit, and Ber.
Russia’s security model, according toACLED analystHéni Nsaibia, provides rapid military support but does little to address the underlying drivers of militancy: weak governance, corruption, socio-economic marginalization, and ethnic tensions. Mali’s withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025 and its severing ofintelligence-sharingarrangements with coastal West African countries have created a blind spot for neighboring states, even as JNIM expands toward their borders.
Biden giving up U.S. Air Base 201 in Niger removed what had been the West’s primary surveillance platform for the entire region. The base cost$110 millionto build and was, at the time, the largestU.S. Air Force-ledconstruction project in history, with drone operations targeting Islamic State and al-Qaeda beginning in 2019. Niger’s post-coup junta declared the U.S. military presence illegal in March 2024 and ordered American forces out days after a tense visit by U.S. officials.
The U.S. and Nigerfundamentally disagreedover the junta’s desire to supply Iran with uranium and deepen ties with Russia. A senior U.S. defense official acknowledged the cost directly, stating that “even if we were to lift the exact thing that we had in Niger and put it somewhere else, we’re not able to monitor the threat in the same way,” adding that the loss of overflight permissions had degradedmonitoring capability. AFRICOM confirmed thewithdrawal was completeon September 16, 2024.
Source: The Gateway Pundit
