Asian and other middle powers are watching next week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping with deep anxiety, fearing that Washington might trade away long-standing security commitments in exchange for economic concessions from Beijing.
As the two most powerful leaders prepare to meet in Beijing, smaller nations across Asia are accelerating efforts to diversify their defense and economic partnerships — a clear sign of eroding confidence in the traditional US -led order.
Fears Over Taiwan and Regional Stability
Officials in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines are particularly concerned that Trump — known for his transactional approach — might soften US support for Taiwan or reduce military presence in the region to secure better trade terms with China.One Taiwanese official, speaking anonymously, called any reduction in American support “the biggest nightmare.” Analysts say even symbolic concessions could embolden Beijing to increase pressure on contested territories, from the South China Sea to the India-China border.
Richard Heydarian, a Filipino political scientist, described the current behavior of smaller nations as “fifty shades of hedging.” Countries are quietly building new alliances and diversifying partnerships while publicly maintaining cordial relations with both Washington and Beijing.
The Trump-Xi summit is seen more as a potential source of risk than opportunity. Many middle powers worry that a grand bargain between the two giants could come at their expense — whether through reduced US military commitments, weaker support for Taiwan, or new trade arrangements that disadvantage smaller economies.
As one Southeast Asian diplomat put it, smaller nations feel like they are “stuck between Godzilla and another giant” — trying to survive by staying quiet and building whatever safety nets they can.
The coming days in Beijing may not just shape US -China relations, but could also determine how much trust remains in the current international system. For many middle powers, the message is clear: they must prepare for a world where they can rely less on Washington — and must navigate Beijing with extreme caution.
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