In the midst of escalating market turmoil, XRP holders are witnessing a surge in panic selling as the cryptocurrency trades at $1.43, a steep decline from its $3.50 peak in mid-2025. This dramatic downturn, representing roughly 60% losses for many investors, has shattered psychological barriers and fueled widespread capitulation, leaving the community grappling with uncertainty over whether to sell or hold amid the chaos.
Analysts' price predictions for XRP, ranging from $3 to $8, stand in stark contrast to the current bearish reality, prompting urgent questions about the optimal strategy. On-chain data underscores the distress, with key metrics revealing significant holder pressure and a shift in market structure that has accelerated selling patterns across major cohorts.
Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics firm, has highlighted critical signals driving this wave of XRP panic selling. Since August 2025, long-term holders—who accumulated before November 2024—have ramped up their spending by 580%, surging from $38 million per day to $260 million per day. This increased distribution during weakness has intensified downward pressure on the price.
In a February 9 post, Glassnode detailed the alarming trends: "XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling. SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now). Holders are realizing significant losses. On-chain profitability flipped negative. This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization."
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), tracked via its 7-day exponential moving average, dipping below 1 indicates that XRP coins are being sold at a loss on average—a pivotal metric guiding investors' decisions on when to sell amid the current distress.
Compounding the unease, over 41% of the XRP supply is currently underwater, meaning holders are in loss positions, which continues to exert selling pressure and influences choices on whether to buy, sell, or hold the token.
This scenario echoes historical patterns, such as the prolonged consolidation from September 2021 to May 2022, where similar SOPR declines preceded eventual stabilization, offering a cautious note for investors navigating today's volatility.
