Nuclear Treaty Expired: Why Washington Says A US–Russia–China Treaty Is Now Esse...

The expiration of the New START treaty has marked the end of the last remaining agreement limiting deployed strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia, leaving no legal caps or verification mechanisms in place between the two nuclear superpowers.

Signed in 2010, New START capped the number of deployed warheads at 1,550 for each side and included robust verification provisions such as on-site inspections and data exchanges to ensure compliance. However, by early 2026, the treaty's structure had significantly weakened. Moscow suspended inspections, and the broader strategic relationship between Washington and the Kremlin deteriorated amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

Although parity in overall warhead numbers remains broadly intact—with both countries retaining roughly 4,000 warheads in their total stockpiles according to independent estimates—the legal ceiling and transparency mechanisms provided by New START are now gone.

For Washington, the treaty's lapse represents more than a bilateral setback. U.S. officials argue that the global nuclear balance has fundamentally shifted due to the rapid expansion of a third major actor: China.

The central driver of the U.S. position is the growth of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. Late 2024 Pentagon assessments placed China's nuclear stockpile in the "low 600s," with projections indicating it will exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. This marks the fastest expansion in over half a century, reshaping deterrence calculations worldwide.

Speaking at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas G. DiNanno emphasized the treaty's obsolescence, stating that New START’s limits were “no longer relevant in 2026,” given the scale of China’s expansion and Russia’s development of systems outside treaty constraints.

With the treaty's formal expiration, Washington is pushing for a new framework that includes China, highlighting the need for a trilateral U.S.-Russia-China agreement to address the evolving nuclear landscape and restore some measure of strategic stability.