With Iran talks at a near-standstill and more than 1,500 commercial ships still stranded in the Gulf, a stark assessment from The Telegraph has laid bare the impossible bind Donald Trump now finds himself in. Writing for the publication, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator David Blairarguedthat Trump is left with three options on Iran, and that every single one of them is bad.
The piece landed as global energy markets remained under acute strain. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 20 million barrels per day before the war to just3.8 millionin early April, pushing North Sea Dated crude to $130 (£96) per barrel — in what the agency has called the largest disruption to oil supplies in history. Brent crude has not dropped below $100 a barrel in nearly two weeks, and the national average gas price in the United States rose to a wartime high of$4.39 (£3.25)per gallon, up more than 30 cents from a week prior.
To understand why Trump's options are so limited, it helps to understand what the Strait of Hormuz actually means to the world. The strait is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying arounda quarterof global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers. Its closure has not merely disrupted energy markets — it has sent shockwaves through food supply chains as well.
Over 30 per cent of global urea, which is widely used and produced from natural gas, is exported from Gulf countries through the strait, leading theInternational Food Policy Research Instituteto warn of long-term increases in food prices due to disruption in fuel and fertiliser markets. Meanwhile, analysts project a 16 per cent rise in global commodity prices, with Asia bearing the brunt of the crisis — the region receives around 85 per cent of all crude shipments from the Gulf, and oil imports fell by 30 per cent year-on-year in April alone, reaching their lowest level since October 2015.
Trump should snatch the victory now by declaring victory & bringing our troops home.If we stay, we extend Iran’s ability to turn this into a quagmire. Keeping the blockade or resuming the war gives Iran the ability to physically bleed us in the region & politically bleed us at…https://t.co/hEn08zwsqm
Arab News analystZaid Belbagiwrote that the situation now constitutes 'the most severe stress test the entire global energy supply system has ever known,' noting that unlike previous disruptions caused by a supplier exiting the market, 'the 2026 crisis involves a strategic chokepoint effectively going dark — this is structurally different and, in many ways, far more difficult to compensate for.'
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has put hard numbers to the damage. Its research found that the closure of the Strait is expected to raise the average West Texas Intermediate price of oil to$98 (£73) per barreland lower global real GDP growth by an annualised 2.9 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026. Bloomberg reported that traders and analysts are now starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented$200 (£148) a barrelif the strait remains closed, with Europe at risk of diesel shortages within weeks.
The first option Blair identifies is a quick deal to reopen the strait. Iran has already proposed restoring free navigation in exchange for America lifting its blockade of Iranian ports and pledging not to return to war. The advantages are clear — lower oil prices and a global economy pulled back from the brink — but the costs are severe. By ending its embargo and ruling out military action, Washington would 'greatly reduce its leverage,' with any further deal on Iran's nuclear programme likely to be 'far weaker than otherwise.' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blair writes, 'would vociferously oppose any outcome along these lines.'
The second option is to hold the line — maintaining the US embargo on Iranian ports while pushing for a comprehensive settlement covering not just the strait but Iran's nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missiles, and its support for armed groups. The risk, Blair warns, is that Iran simply waits Trump out.Kenneth Katzman, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center, noted that 'the differences on the nuclear issues are actually not that great a difference any more,' but that 'Iran really mistrusts Trump and the United States and does not want to move, really, into full discussion until this blockade is lifted,' adding that this is 'a problem that could lead to US escalation.'
The third option — returning to outright military force to reopen the strait — carries the gravest risks of all. Blair writes that any such operation 'would be fraught with risk and would almost certainly require American ground units,' while the strait would remain closed throughout, with 'disastrous consequences for energy supplies and the global economy.' Analysts have warned that prices are likely to remain elevated for some time after any peace deal, due to thebacklogof unloaded energy supplies, damaged infrastructure, and the need to clear Iranian mines. A renewed offensive would only deepen that pressure further.
Source: International Business Times UK
