Belying the Trump administration's claims that a US blockade on Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz has the country on the ropes and its oil infrastructure in near-term peril,a confidential CIA analysis saysIran can persevere another three or four months, if not longer. In a second stark contradiction of White House narratives, US intelligence assesses thatthe bulk of Iran's pre-war missile inventory is still intact.The substance of the CIA analysis was first reported by theWashington Post, which attributed the insights to three current officials and one former one who've seen it.

Over recent weeks,a particular narrative about the blockade has been gaining traction -- namely, that Iran's inability to freely export oil is putting its energy infrastructure in imminent dangerof "shut-in" damage that would commence after Iran's capacity to store oil ran out. We were among the earliest to start focusing on that critical dimension of the conflict, andthe shut-in-crisis scenario gained credibility on Wednesdaywhen an oil-sector expert who serves on Iran's Chamber of Commerce candidly told theNew York Timesthat"the sea blockade is a much more serious threat than even war, and the current stalemate must be broken because the export of our oil and energy andthe fate of our refineries is now at risk.”

The “Team B” counterpoint here is whatever the FDD/Israel lobby says (“just a few more blockade days + a few more bombing sorties and the defeated regime is over”), and though they’re always wrong, presidents have a funny habit of going for the best-massaged Team B intelligencehttps://t.co/3OqU81ydK0

However, the officials who are familiar with the new CIA analysis told thePostthat Iran is using various avenues to maximize storage and forestall shut-in damage, from storing oil on empty tankers to reducing the flow from wells. Summing up the oil infrastructure risks and broader economic impacts, one of them said,"It’s nowhere near as dire as some have claimed."One of the officials said the CIA estimate of three or four months of runway may even be underselling Iran's endurance, pointing to the potential for increasing exports via overland routes.“There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,”said an official.

Meanwhile, the CIA has concluded that Iran's military is in far better shape than what Trump, Defense secretary Pete Hegseth and others have told the American people. On Wednesday,Trump claimed that Iran's missile inventory was a small shadow of what it wasbefore the country was attacked by Israel and the United States:

Trump on Iran:Their missiles are mostly decimated. They have probably 18–19% left, not a lot in comparison to what they had.pic.twitter.com/9r9W5iVd8o

The confidential CIA analysis, however, allegedly paints an entirely different picture:

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began. -- Washington Post

Iran is likely in even better shape where drones are concerned, given their lower cost and the ease with which they can be assembled in small facilities. That points to Iran's ability to continue thwarting commerce out of the Persian Gulf.“All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance"for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, told thePost.

Some observers view this and other leaks asan attempt by Trump administration subordinates to steer America away from re-escalationof a war initiated by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. "The latest leak from US military and intelligence institutions rebuts theFox Newscrowd andshows an American military and intelligence establishment desperate to prevent an American return to war against Iran,"wroteMatthew Hoh, a senior fellow at theEisenhower Media Network, an organization comprising former military service members, intelligence community alumni and diplomats. "I have never seen such a deliberate and coordinated effort by CIA, Pentagon and others to keep the US out of war in defiance of their political bosses."

Source: ZeroHedge News