Asylum seekers dreaming of a new life in California face dramatically different odds depending on whether their cases land before judges in San Francisco or Los Angeles, with San Francisco offering far higher chances of approval.
Between 2020 and late 2025, more liberal judges in San Francisco denied just 28.5% of asylum cases, according to data compiled by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. In contrast, Los Angeles judges denied almost 60% of applicants during the same period, aligning closely with the national average.
This judicial disparity underscores how the fate of thousands of migrants hinges on geographic lottery within the state, turning the "California dream" into a reality more attainable in the Bay Area than in Southern California.
The gap has widened amid a broader toughening of immigration enforcement. Last quarter, nearly 80% of migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. were denied, as immigration judges adopted a harder line under the Trump administration.
“It’s having a real impact,” said Andrew Arthur, a fellow at the Center for Immigration Policy and a former immigration judge, highlighting the shift's consequences for applicants.
Arthur further noted, “The Trump Administration is doing all kinds of things to drive down the asylum grant rate,” pointing to policy measures influencing judicial outcomes nationwide.
For asylum seekers navigating California's immigration courts, venue selection could not be more critical, with San Francisco's lenient record providing a stark counterpoint to Los Angeles' stricter stance.
