The champagne — metaphorically speaking, this is a Congress celebration after all — has barely settled after the UDF's return to power in Kerala, and the victory status is already complicated.Postersbacking the two names in the CM race - VD Satheesan and KC Venugopal - have surfaced on the streets of Thiruvananthapuram. Supporters are flexing. Cameras are rolling. And the Congress high command, which has just pulled off a genuine political comeback in a state it was locked out of for a decade, is now faced with the oldest test in its playbook — the power tussle within the party for the top post. No, I am not talking about Karnataka; it is the winner state, Kerala, that is facing the big question of who will be the next chief minister.
The answer to that question matters more than it might appear.
The two candidates are credible. VD Satheesan brought energy and a combative campaign connect to the election fight. Ramesh Chennithala carries seniority and a mass base built over decades. KC Venugopal brings organisational muscle and a national-level perspective that matters when Delhi is watching. Each has earned their claim. None is a wrong answer.
But here is the thing about choices that have no wrong answer — they can still be made wrongly. A selection process that is seen to be driven by factional pressure, poster wars, and lobby arithmetic rather than by governance suitability will destabilise the new government even before it has drawn its first cabinet. The Indian Union Muslim League, a critical alliance partner, will be watching the accommodation calculus carefully. So will every other UDF constituent.
This brings us to the inconvenient lesson sitting next door.
Karnataka has been a warning in slow motion. Congress won there in 2023 — convincingly, deservingly. And then proceeded to spend much of its term negotiating with itself. The Siddaramaiah-DK Shivakumar equation, never fully resolved, has been a recurring distraction. Cabinet expansions became proxy contests. Organisational appointments turned into factional battlegrounds. Governance did not stop, but the noise around power never did either.
The result: a legitimate election victory has been partially obscured by the persistent impression of a party more interested in managing its own leaders than in managing the state. The BJP, looking to reclaim ground, has been handed a narrative it did not have to manufacture.
Congress cannot afford a Kerala sequel to the Karnataka story.
The Venugopal camp claims backing of nearly 50 of the 63 Congress MLAs, with eight of the 10 Congress Group A MLAs and three independents in support — asserting that on pure numbers, he is the frontrunner.
The Satheesan faction counters with 25 MLAs and maintains the choice should not be decided by headcount alone — stressing the importance of keeping alliance partners united. His camp has indicated he may adopt a tough stance if not considered.
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