It was a tight race, so a campaign staffer doubted the results of an unreleased poll showing their candidate up — by a lot.

The tip about the outside poll didn't match up with the campaign's internal numbers. But accuracy aside,the staffer knew the poll would shake upthe prediction markets. One market had their candidate down by double digits.

"Myself and others started placing bets before that poll came out," the staffer, who was working on a statewide campaign in the South, told NPR on the condition of anonymity over fear for their future employment. "And then, sure enough as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money."

This is one of the first publicly reported instances of a campaign staffer betting and winning thousands on their own candidate on prediction markets — emerging financial exchanges where billions are bet each week on future events like sports, cultureand even elections.

The staffer's bet was verified by prediction market data reviewed by NPR.

"Because you have all this information and knowledge that isn't publicly available yet, it's almost foolish not to bet on it before it's made public," the staffer said.

The staffer said campaign bets by fellow staffers were commonplace in this particular campaign and the ones that followed.

In recent weeks, popular prediction market Kalshi has banned and fined a handful of political candidates for betting on themselves. Bets like these raise questions about how campaign operatives can also turn private information into a quick payday amid an unsettled legal landscape.

For this campaign staffer, the method was simple. First, they'd receive a tip on an unreleased poll and compare it with the odds on a prediction market, like PredictIt orPolymarket. If the poll reported their candidate had a better chance of winning than the prediction markets, they'd use this edge to buy low-cost odds on their candidate — known as event contracts — before the poll was released.

On prediction markets, the price of an event contract often mirrors the market's estimation of the probability of a given outcome — in this case the chance a candidate will win. So a contract selling for 20 cents means the market is pricing a 20% chance of success.

Source: Drudge Report