The ECMWF long-range forecast models suggest the strongest El Niño ever is likely to form by November. While an El Niño year typically means less tropical activity in the Atlantic, all chances are not lost, as the model shows above-average ocean temperatures for the duration of hurricane season.
The latest long-range European forecast shows there's a 100% chance of a superEl Niño, potentially suppressinghurricaneactivity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southernU.S.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-rangeforecastmodel, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November.
EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: EL NIÑO LIKELY TO BOOST HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SUMMER
Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.
The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.
Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.
EL NIÑO AND HURRICANE SEASON: WHAT IT MEANS AND HOW SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE PLAYED OUT
Infrared satellite image shows Category 5 Hurricane Otis approaching Acapulco on Oct. 24, 2023.
However, the ECMWF isn't yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Niño effects may not be felt until later into the season.
Source: California Post – Breaking California News, Photos & Videos
