Brent crude futures briefly tumbled below $100 a barrel on Wednesday morning after an Axios report indicated the Trump administration and Tehran were working toward aone-page memorandumof understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, any near-term peace deal would not immediately normalize the badly fractured global energy supply chains. Crude products markets remain physically tight, and the damage from months of disrupted tanker flows will take time to unwind. Some countries may already be entering a critical point, with jet fuel and diesel inventories at risk of being drawn down to dangerously low levels in the months ahead.

Goldman analysts, led by Michele Della Vigna, warned about diesel and jet fuel availability in Europe ahead of the summer months, noting that "extreme physical tightness in summer/early autumn" is a scenario they are forecasting.

"We believe jet fuel prices in Europe will need to remain elevated to redirect cargoes from other regions, covering 50% of the shortfall in disrupted volumes from the Middle East through Hormuz and from Asian exporters no longer exporting to Europe," Della Vigna told clients.

Della Vigna, the head of EMEA natural resources research at Goldman, pointed out that "some countries (the UK in particular) could end up with extremely low inventories, and it's possible that rationing measures would be put in place to slow inventory draw."

Readers have been well informed about the looming jet fuel crisis set to hit Europe this summer (readhere&here&here&here), as well as JPMorgan's March take on how the energy crisis is spreading across regions (readhere).

As we detailed on Tuesday, President Trump's push to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint at the start of the week likely reflects the beginning of aone-month countdownto accelerated energy chaos if the critical waterway is not reopened. The risk is no longer confined to crude markets. Prolonged disruption through Hormuz is spreading into refined-product supply chains, with Europe's jet fuel and diesel inventories facing the brunt of physical tightness heading into summer and early autumn.

Della Vigna estimated that Europe faces a gross jet fuel loss of about 500,000 barrels a day from Gulf-area exporters and Asian tankers transiting Hormuz, and assumes that half of that shortfall can be offset by redirected U.S. and West African energy flows, leaving a net loss of approximately 250,000 barrels a day. For diesel, he assumes the full 220,000 barrels-a-day loss is absorbed by European stocks.

Exhibit 3: We estimate a gross jet fuel loss of c.500 kb/d from Middle East Gulf and Asian exporters and we show the sensitivity to different % of exports subtitutions coming from other regions

He singled out the UK as having the highest-risk jet fuel market because it is Europe's largest net importer of jet fuel, at about 195,000 barrels a day, and lacks proper reserves. He warned that UK commercial stocks could fall below 10 days of cover by midsummer, raising the risk of rationing, which in turn would impact commercial flights.

Source: ZeroHedge News