Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov delivered a blunt assessment on Friday, declaring that no foundation exists for initiating talks with the United States on a successor to the New START nuclear arms control treaty. Speaking to reporters in Moscow, Ryabkov emphasized that ongoing geopolitical frictions, particularly Washington's support for Ukraine and expansion of NATO infrastructure, have eroded any basis for renewed dialogue. The statement comes just weeks ahead of the treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, leaving the future of strategic nuclear stability in limbo.
New START, formally the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, has been the cornerstone of bilateral nuclear arms control since 2010. Extended for five years in 2021, it caps each side at 1,550 deployed warheads, 700 deployed delivery vehicles, and 800 total launchers. However, Russia suspended its participation in February 2023, citing U.S. restrictions on information sharing amid the Ukraine conflict, while maintaining it has not withdrawn. The U.S. has continued inspections in theory but accused Moscow of non-compliance, further straining implementation.
Ryabkov's remarks underscore Moscow's preconditions for any future arms control: the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia's military-industrial complex, cessation of U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine, and abandonment of what Russia views as provocative NATO deployments near its borders. "Until these issues are addressed, discussions about New START or its replacement are premature and unproductive," he stated. This position aligns with President Vladimir Putin's broader narrative framing the West as the aggressor in a new era of strategic confrontation.
From the U.S. perspective, officials in Washington have repeatedly called for Russia's return to full compliance before any new talks, with the State Department labeling Moscow's suspension as "unilateral and unjustified." Pentagon assessments warn that the lapse in verification could accelerate an arms race, as both nuclear powers modernize arsenals without mutual transparency. Analysts note that without New START, hypersonic weapons, novel delivery systems, and emerging technologies like AI-driven targeting fall outside any limits, heightening escalation risks.
The impasse reflects a broader unraveling of post-Cold War arms control architecture, including the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 and stalled Conventional Armed Forces in Europe talks. As the treaty's sunset approaches, experts fear a return to unchecked nuclear buildup reminiscent of the 1980s, with implications rippling to allies like China, whose expanding arsenal adds another layer of complexity. Diplomatic channels remain open but frigid, with little indication of compromise on either side.
