Covid infections were falling across Europe before lockdowns, new research shows, making the Covid Inquiry’s claim that locking down a week earlier could have saved 23,000 lives “complete hokum”. TheTelegraphhas the story.
Statisticians at the University of Edinburgh compiled figures from 10 countries where accurate daily death numbers were available, and calculated when those people must have become infected.
Out of 17 lockdowns introduced between March 2020 and March 2022, only the first Belgian restriction, and the second Italian, preceded a fall in infections.
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For all the others – including England’s three lockdowns – infections had already peaked before the country was ordered into isolation, raising questions about whether such harsh restrictions were required.
The study found people had already begun to voluntarily change their behaviour before lockdowns were introduced.
Prof Simon Wood, of Edinburgh’s School of Mathematics, said it challenged claims that locking down sooner could have saved thousands of lives.
Last November, the Covid Inquiry published a second report suggesting thatlocking down one week earlier could have saved 23,000 lives, based on modelling by Imperial College London.
“It’s complete hokum,” said Prof Wood. “Infections were already falling before we locked downand that should give pause for thought.
“People had already restricted their activity quite a bit, and they were altering their behaviour because they were worried about the disease.
Source: SGT Report
